The M1 Disconnect

Back in October 2016, i watch this stock fall together with the sector in what was a fairly lackluster year for equities. I thought to myself, it's pretty significant off the highs, i am going to take a pessimistic estimate of its earnings, and then find an entry that will make me feel comfortable.

That entry came and i took up a position in M1. News of fourth Telco were fairly widespread then and coupled with some political uncertainties around the world, were some of the reasons thrown out for its decline.

It was a few days before they announced their results so i did some calculations on whatever latest results they had and took my own estimations of the fall in Earnings and therefore yield. Telcos have had a good run since 2010 together with the population boom and has became a fairly stable and good yielding defensive stock.

Stable in the sense that the price doesn't fluctuate much and the yields are fairly high. Considering that their revenue are pretty steady due to many of us being tied to contracts, it is not unreasonable to call it defensive and describe it that way.

Having said that, i entered expecting that the next 12 months dividend should come up to around 12c.
Now that their 2nd quarter results are out, and i have held it almost to full 12 months, i am pretty disappointed to see that even my estimates were too optimistic. Actual dividend comes up to only 11.1c and you can kind of extrapolate that the rest of the figures are not healthy.

The price has since fell big time after this recent earnings announcement. While i strongly advocate proper money management of cut loss, i am still holding it. I hate to admit it but i think i do still suffer from loss aversion. There are some positive stories that i am still hoping to play out so that is keeping me in.

Maybe not so much a disconnect per se, but more like a lag in bandwidth.

As of this post, the price has not fell enough for me to consider adding more stakes. I did not take a big position (relative to full portfolio) so i have some room to add. Management has since warned that Full Year net profit will be lower than last year and i am going to estimate that the next half year will see a poorer showing in percentage wise than the first half.

Lessons learn here are that i need to consider more factors in my estimation. Clearly the fourth telco is known, and the threat should probably worth more than i gave it credit for.

The Salted Fishes in My Freezer

I won't have noticed how fast time passed if not for the fact that the last post was already a month ago. I really need to pen more content than i am currently doing.

Since this is the new month, new half of the year, I want to start talking about my portfolio which till now hasn't been revealed. Fun Fact: There's more days from July to December than Jan to June so its actually closer to half today than on the last day of June.

But before going to the portfolio, i just like to share about this two salted fishes that are sitting in my financial freezer. I define them as the duds that i have failed to cut loss on,, which i really should. They are unlikely to make it back to the price i entered but hey, i'm like you, i'm still there waiting for one day when it happens. The returns will be shit of course but whatever, 咸鱼翻身 (google translate) you know. 

Image from: Retail News Asia

Salted Fish #1

Construction counter. Entered in its heyday when there were good news about a potential exciting overseas venture. I was still new to the market and the knowledge of the market pricing in all the "maybe" information has not dawned upon me yet. Then, a string of bad news happened to the firm. Talk about when it rains, it pours. Cut loss was a theoretical know-how at that time as well. So nope, did not cut when i could. At one point, i was at 80% loss. 

Salted fish is still in the freezer and it always reminds me of the mistakes i made in the past. Looking on the bright side, it taught me cut-loss, efficient market pricing and even a share consolidation exercise. I might have also made another further mistake by averaging down not so long ago during a rights issue. Though it hasn't fall much lower than that price ever since. 

There's still a tinge of hope (which is bad). But honestly, that is the end of adding to this salted fish.

Salted Fish #2

When i entered, it was a shell investment holding company. Hyped by the stakes taken by a very prominent broker in Singapore taking it on an RTO exercise, it was marketed to be a play on the future of the real estate it then owns just across the straits to the north. As i watched it move, the classic FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) stirred within me. Of course, being human and also extremely new, i succumbed to it. Guess what, i succumbed on the very last retrace which turned out to be the exact downfall. Talk about fear of missing out on catching falling knives. Two lessons in one go, how lucky was I.

This was a good story because the very next day after i entered, a brokerage even called for a trading curb on this counter. Guess what, it was the sole brokerage that i was using. This might have exacerbated the fall for all i know. But there was I, panicking due to the fall and having no means to dump it other than calling my broker. Couldn't contact him and had to be put through to a colleague to give instructions to dump it. 

So why is it still in the freezer? 

I did not dump all the shares i had purchased. I left the last one lot (at that time) so that i could remember this event. That is stupid because i doubt i would have forget given the kind of emotions i was feeling at that time. Anyway, there were warrants that were given for free and i got myself into some kind of unwarranted mess (pun). 

Got forced to learn what warrants were and how it worked. There were occasions where i thought about selling the free warrants which i really should but they have since lapsed and expired. There is no point in exercising because the mother share was cheaper than the exercise price. 

By now, it should be fairly obvious what counter this is. Including the contra loss, i am at 90% loss. And it is so cheap now that it might not even pay for brokerage if i sold. There is really zero hope in this guy recovering to break even but i am including it in my portfolio returns because this is what it is. 

Summary

I made mistakes before, and they cost me quite a sum of money at that time. This two counters took out about 5% in my XIRR over 3 years because a lot of it was committed in the early years. I have obviously paid my school fees and learned my lessons as the new counters are doing much better.

They are still in the freezer as unfortunate reminders. What are some of your salted fish?