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Friday, October 27, 2017

Follow Up on Manulife REIT Rights Issue

Looks like it is pretty tough to get Excess Rights for Manulife REIT. I applied for 2000 excess, but only received a mere 200.

Anyway, here are the numbers. All prices in USD.

Price before annoucement: 96c
Average Price on Day after (4th Sep): 93c (approximate)
Buying 10000 shares on Day After: 10000 x 0.93 = 9300 USD
Rights Entitled: 4100
Excess Awarded: 200
Total New Units: 4100 + 200 = 4300
Cost per Unit: 69.5c USD
Rights Cost: 2988.50 (ATM fees excluded)
Cost Total: 9300 + 2988.50 = 12,288.50 USD

Average Price on First Day of Trading (26th Oct): 91c (approximate)
# of shares to sell back to 9300 cost: 2988.50 / 0.91 = 3285 ~ 3300 (rounded up to avoid odd lots)
Total Shares left:  10000 + 4300 - 3300 = 11000

Now, the dividend numbers are a little more complicated due to the distribution for the acquisition done in June. Regardless, i will use the previous distribution at face value.

Using latest Dividend numbers
Dividend per unit (DPU): 3.2c
Total Received on 10000 shares: 320 USD
Original yield (annualized): 320 x 2 / 9300 = 6.9%

Diluted Dividend (assuming no increase in income): 3.2 / 1.41 = 2.27c
Total with 11000 shares: 11000 * 2.27c = 249.65 USD
New yield (annualized): 249.65 x 2 / (12,288.50 - (3300 x 0.91)) = 5.4%

Obviously, the income in this case is going to rise as the rights issue was done to acquire another property. Rough calculations gave me a 0.80c contribution by the new property after rights issue.

Adding that in, and doing the last set of calculations.
(2.27 + 0.8) x 2 / (12,288.50 - (3300 x 0.91)) = 7.3%

I am honestly surprised by this result. I checked my 0.8c estimate a couple of times but the only portion that might be overstated is the Rent Free Reimbursements.

If this is the case, i might be trimming down some of my stake. Anyway, i have the yield that i need.

Did i make a mistake in the calculations somewhere?

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